The Morgan Report Blog

Silver Squelchers Twenty One & Their Interesting Associates: Megabankers in The Society

 
Megabankers are one of the hardest groups in The Pilgrims Society on which to document membership. However past patterns, seen in lists from 1980 on back to 1914 and the charter members, indicate that if those patterns are followed, and there’s no cause why they shouldn’t be—we may expect, if we have an actual updated roster for both branches, to find members in top management and the boards of directors of banks including—Wells Fargo (263,900 employees); Citigroup (243,000 employees); JPM Chase (265,359 employees); Bank of America (233,000 employees); Bank of New York Mellon (50,300 employees, manages $28 trillion); more Barclays bankers (132,300 employees); more HSBC bankers (80 countries and over 50 million customers); Royal Bank of Scotland (33 million customers); Lloyd’s Banking Group (45,856 employees); Standard Chartered Bank (70 countries and 87,000 employees); Bank of Montreal (46,778 employees); Toronto Dominion Bank (79,000 employees); Royal Bank of Canada (73,500 employees); CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, 44,424 employees); Scotia Bank (Bank of Nova Scotia, 87,000 employees); National Bank of Canada (20,000 employees); Northern Trust (14,100 employees); PNC Bank (2,700 branches and 52,000 employees); Capital One Bank (41,100 employees); Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (48,239 employees); Commonwealth Bank of Australia (44,329 employees); Western Pacific Banking Corporation of Australia (36,000 employees); and others including Swiss banks. Controlling the mainland European and the Japanese banking systems through Bilderberg and Trilateral Commission, you see “The One Bank” effect however; what we must force out into the light of day are the current members of The Pilgrims, the top globalist group and the only one still refusing to release their roster! So it isn’t splitting hairs in any sense to go after The Pilgrims, rather than the One Bank. Robert Cutting Lawrence III, to be profiled in #28 or 29, Royalty & Noble Hereditary Ancestry in The Pilgrims, could also be placed in the megabankers group; you’ll see why, but is best adapted for #28 or 29 (two parts).

Have I worn you out with content? Try researching and presenting a series this extensive on any other topic. I did it all for free because the public has a right to know about this Pilgrims Society network. “If it is to be, it is up to me” can also be your slogan on any worthwhile cause. As a small opener note that

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David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.

As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this… 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time! Where will you be when this happens?

 

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Silver Squelchers 20 & Their Interesting Associates: Investment Bankers in The Pilgrims Society #2

 
Silver Squelchers 20 & Their Interesting Associates
Investment Bankers in The Pilgrims Society #2

by Charles Savoie

1) John Charles Straton Jr. (1932—: Pilgrims Society as of undetermined) has info in the 2014 Who’s Who in the East, pages 1367-1368—

The December 21, 1907 New York Times, front page headline read, “Ruined Speculator Kills J.H. Oliphant Then Shoots Himself in the Brokerage Office of his Victim Who Dies at 2:00 AM Today, Fortune of $75,000 Gone” we read:

“James H. Oliphant, senior member of the Stock Exchange firm of James H. Oliphant Co., and one of the best-known brokers in this city, was shot, and mortally wounded in his office at 20 Broad Street yesterday afternoon by Dr. Charles A. Geiger of Beaufort, S.C., a ruined speculator, who for two years or more had been a customer of the Oliphant firm. Dr. Geiger then turned the revolver on himself and sent the bullet into his brain, dying instantly.”

My “Pilgrims meter” tells me that Oliphant was a member, though he wasn’t a charter member as of January 1903—

The 2005 Who’s Who in America, page 3502, shows David Olyphant (note spelling variation) as a member of The Pilgrims. He was a Citibank executive, an officer of the English Speaking Union (direct Pilgrims subsidiary) and involved with the American Trust for the British Library.

John Charles Straton Jr. was with Oliphant & Company for 19 years, then went to Spencer, Trask & Company (1975-1977) when then merged with the Hornblower & Weeks investment bank (described in detail in #7 Silver Squelchers, pages 22-34. Next there was a merger with Loeb, Rhoades & Company, connected to Pilgrims Society member John L. Loeb Jr., who became Ambassador to Denmark (1981-1983). Loeb Jr. was in The Pilgrims 1980 roster and had holdings in Holly Sugar Corporation, Cuban Atlantic Sugar, Metro Goldwyn Mayer, Denver & Rio Grande Western Railroad and others. Afterwards these firms underwent yet another merger into Shearson Loeb Rhoades then Shearson Lehman Brothers. In 1993 Straton bounced to Smith Barney & Company, which merged with Salomon Brothers; and finally today is part of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Please, READ THE REST OF SILVER SQUELCHERS #20

 

David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.

As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this… 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time! Where will you be when this happens?

 

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Insight into Greece and China’s Love of Gold – David Morgan

 
Insight into Greece and China’s Love of Gold – David Morgan

theStockRadio.com is pleased to announce another interview with David Morgan!

 

David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.

As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this… 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time! Where will you be when this happens?

 

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Upticks in Silver Demand Seen in First Half of 2015

 
(Washington, D.C. July 28, 2015) – Through the first half of this year, silver experienced increased demand for jewelry and important industrial applications, two signals of demand growth for this most versatile of metals.

Silver jewelry, a mainstay of silver demand, was strong in the first half of 2015. In the U.S., imports of silver jewelry jumped 11 percent through the end of May, as consumer desire for silver jewelry increased significantly this year. The U.S. is the largest importer of silver jewelry, as measured in dollar terms, and this demand impacts silver trade across Asia. U.S. imports from Thailand are up 18.5 percent through the end of May while China showed an increase of 14 percent in the same period.

GFMS Thomson Reuters (GFMS), the precious metals consultancy, estimates that globally silver jewelry will grow 5 percent in 2015.

With almost 60 percent of silver demand tied to industrial use, silver’s role in industrial applications is looking brighter in several important areas. GFMS forecasts a 2 percent growth in industrial applications for silver this year.

In the renewable energy industry sector, the demand for silver by solar panel producers is expected to increase 8 percent to 65 million ounces this year. The rise reflects increased solar cell production and a higher number of installations. The increase is due to the U.S., which had a 76 percent increase in solar installations in the first quarter of 2015 when compared to last year. China and India both have aggressive solar installation plans and are expected help drive this projected growth as well.

Silver demand from ethylene oxide producers is expected to increase to 8.6 million ounces in 2015, which would represent a 61 percent increase over 2014. Most of this increase will be driven by Chinese demand. Ethylene oxide is a vital building block chemical, critical in the production of plastics, solvents, and detergents and a broad range of organic chemicals, and represents one more example of the unmatched importance of silver in industry.

Electronics demand is forecast to increase modestly in 2015, by 0.4 percent. A decline in silver demand by computer and tablet producers, by an expected 4.5 percent drop in shipments this year, should be partially offset by a 3 percent increase in mobile phone shipments in 2015.

Additionally, the silver market is expected to be in a deficit of 57.7 million ounces in 2015, as supply contracts and physical demand grows.
This would mark the third consecutive year that the market is in a physical deficit. When the market experiences an annual shortfall from mine supply, users must drawdown on above ground stocks, thereby tightening available supply.

On the investment side, retail investor demand for the white metal has been sturdy in the first half of 2015, in what has been a challenging precious metals investment market. Through July 24, global silver ETF holdings increased by over 4.7 million ounces in 2015, indicating that these investors likely have a more positive longer-term view of the silver price.

In the first half of the year, global bullion coin sales totaled 43.6 million ounces, 6 percent below levels seen in the same period a year ago.
However, first half 2015 global sales were the fifth highest on record. The U.S. Mint, faced with a significant spike in investor interest, temporarily suspended sales of its silver bullion coins on July 7, after exhausting its inventory when investor demand in June surged 80 percent above the previous year’s June coin sales. The Mint resumed bullion coin sales on July 27 on an allocated basis. Similarly, Australia’s Perth Mint saw its silver coins sales spike in June due to a more attractive silver price, though sales overall are down 18 percent from the same period in 2014.

The gold/silver ratio, a simple measure of the metals’ relative prices calculated by dividing the price of an ounce of gold by the corresponding price of silver, has averaged 58 since 2000. The ratio averaged 73 in the first half of 2015, indicating that silver is underpriced relative to gold. This gives way to increased potential for buying in the silver market.

The Silver Institute is a nonprofit international industry association headquartered in Washington, D.C. Established in 1971, the Institute’s members include leading silver producers, prominent silver refiners, manufacturers and dealers. The Institute serves as the industry’s voice in increasing public understanding of the value and the many uses of silver,. For more information on the Silver Institute, or silver in general, please visit: www.silverinstitute.org.

——————————————————————————–

Contact:
Michael DiRienzo
The Silver Institute
Tel: +1 202-495-4030
e-mail: mdirienzo@silverinstitute.org

Victor Webb
Marston Webb International
Tel: +1 917-887-0418
e-mail: marwebint@cs.com

 

David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.

As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this… 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time! Where will you be when this happens?

 

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PRECIOUS Gold struggles to recover from 5 1 2 year low.

 
Money & Metals with David Morgan – PRECIOUS Gold struggles to recover from 5 1 2 year low.

 

David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.

As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this… 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time! Where will you be when this happens?

 

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Trying Times For Gold And Silver Bulls

Monday was a bad day for the bulls in the gold and silver market. Gold saw a day of extreme volatility, a daily move of 3% or more from previous day’s close (-3.35%), its 55th-3% Day since December 2000. Silver was only down 1.02%, so it was far from making a 5% day. I use a 5% daily threshold for silver’s days of extreme volatility as it is the more volatile metal, but like gold’s 3% daily volatility, a 5% daily move (up or down) in the price of silver is an unusual market event that should catch our attention.

Looking at the Silver to Gold Ratio (SGR), the number of ounces of silver a single ounce of gold can purchase, it’s still between 70 and 80 as it has been since the end of September 2014. As is obvious in the chart below,it’s unusual seeing the SGR in such a tight range (69.17 to 76.76)for a ten month period of time. Since 1969 the ratio likes to either move up or down from month to month, but the last ten months have been very different. Looking at the SGR over the decades, during bear markets in gold and silver the SGR moves to higher values, with bull markets sending the SGR to lower values. Seeing the SGR for the past year stuck between 70 and 80 tells me that although the bulls may be battered, the bears are having problems too if after ten months they can’t get the SGR to move above 80. Exactly what that problem is I don’t know. I suspect the bears are finding the real resistance in having everything going their way is in the silver market.

Let’s move on to gold’s step sum charts. As usual; the price trend (Blue Plot)was the superior predictor of future price movements than market sentiment as measured by the step sum’s trend (Red Plot). So seeing the decline in the price of gold ignoring the range bound step sum plot from 2011 to 2014 proved that the bears saw the future more accurately than did the stubborn bulls,which after four years have yet to capitulate. But since March 2014 gold’s step sum has seen more down days than up; isn’t that a sign of capitulation? Maybe, but note what the step sum plot did from February to September 2011, it shot up like a rocket during a buying panic. I can see the selling panic in the price trend, but so far I don’t see the bulls running up the white flag of surrender with a proper collapse in the step sum.

Looking at gold’s step sum chart from 1998 (below) is actually a better view of the market and the stubborn market sentiment of the bulls. We’re actually in a 47 month long bear box, where the bears have kicked the heck out of the bulls for the past four years and yet the bulls have refused to say uncle. I don’t know exactly how this bear box is going to be resolved. Will the step sum see a proper collapse as the price of gold makes a breath-taking plunge to its ultimate bottom of the move before the bull market is resumed, or will the price of gold rise up, taking the step sum with it thus invalidating this prolonged bear box – I haven’t a clue! But I expect either way we’ll see market history being made that will be long remembered.

Here is silver’s step sum chart. After a 70% decline in the price of silver its step sum has so far refused to collapse in a 50 month bear box.

But that’s typical for silver. Silver’s step sum refused to collapse during its 1980-2001 (21 year 90%) bear market too. Keep in mind that silver is also an industrial metal; that makes demand for silver price insensitive to the large industrial users who buy it by the ton, but use it by the gram for its unique electrical, chemical, medical, or reflective properties that are unique to silver. For an automobile manufacturer who uses a quarter an ounce of silver in every car they sell, what does it matter if silver is going for $15 or $150 an ounce when they sell their cars for $30,000 apiece? No matter how far the price of silver goes down on a bad day, industrial users will be back the next day buying silver and that is why silver’s step sum hasn’t seen a proper collapse since 1969.

But in 2015 silver’s unique properties have also made it rarer than gold as gold is always recycled, and returned to the market, while most silver used in manufacturing is never recycled and so lost forever to the market. If the SGR can’t currently get above 80, maybe decades of tossing billions of ounces of silver into the world’s landfills are finally catching up with the bears in the precious metals market.

Let’s look at gold’s Bear’s Eye View (BEV) chart. The current correction is getting nasty. It appears the bears are trying to make gold’s second attempt to find a bottom fail. But if they’re successful in doing so it’s only because they cheat by manipulating the paper futures markets with promises to deliver tons of gold for future delivery that everyone, including the “market regulators” at the CFTC knows they don’t have and can never get. Government “regulation” in America’s financial markets has become a bad joke.

It’s been four years since gold’s last BEV Zero (last all-time high), but no matter as market forces can be denied for only so long. It’s just a matter of time before we see gold making a new BEV Zero in this chart, the question is when? I don’t know, but I suspect we are much closer to the end of this 40% bull-market correction than its beginning!

Silver’s current correction (E) is horrendous, 420 trading days longer and 15% deeper than the horrible credit-crisis correction (D). But I still have to chuckle a bit when I notice that currently, at the bottom of a 70% correction the price of silver, it’s still about $5 higher that it was at the bottom of the credit crisis market.

Go back and take a quick look at silver’s dollar plot in its step sum chart above, the run up in price silver saw from October 2008 to April 2011 was amazing; 468% in only two and a half years! And then also notice that silver’s current last all-time high is still from January 1980. What today in 2015 is still as cheap as it was in 1980? Cloths aren’t, neither are cars or vegetables, yet today silver, a metal that is essential for modern manufacturing is currently 70% below its last all-time high price from four decades ago? Wow, what’s with that! That isn’t true for copper or gold or anything else! Silver has to be most mispriced commodity / investment on the earth!
If you think of market risk as the potential for losing money, then in the BEV chart below we see that at no time since 2001 has there been less risk in purchasing silver. Silver’s current difficulties won’t last forever, nor will its current low price. But one has to be patient because the “policy makers” who hate everything to do with gold and silver aren’t going to make investing in silver any more enjoyable than they have to.

These are trying times for us gold and silver bulls, but the world’s central banks are currently fouling their money supply with monumental-monetary inflation that will someday be a source of woe to even the rich and famous. A historic crash in the paper financial markets is already baked in the cake. Purchasing assets that have no counterparty risks, like real gold and silver seems the logical investment at a time like this. But as is typical at historic market bottoms, don’t expect anyone in the media to ring a bell to tell you when to buy.

Written By:
Mark Lundeen

 

David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.

As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this… 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time! Where will you be when this happens?

 

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50 Years Ago the US Government Stripped Dimes, Quarters & Halves of Silver

 
July 23, 2015 marks the 50th anniversary of the debasement of United States’ coinage. The Coinage Act of 1965 debased the coinage of silver from the dimes and quarter dollars and diminished the silver content of the half dollar from 90% to 40% before it, too, lost all of its silver content about 5 years later. The US government claimed the reason for the act was coin shortages caused by the increase in the price of silver. The Act also forbade the mintage silver dollars for five years.

The demonetization of the silver came just over two year after US President John F. Kennedy delegated authority to the Secretary of the Treasury to issue silver certificates. In his book Crossfire, Jim Marrs posits that Kennedy created silver certificates to undermine the power of the Federal Reserve, though others say that Kennedy’s decision was merely a matter of convenience during a time of transition away from silver certificates. Here are parts of the speech by Lyndon B Johnson announcing the change:

When I have signed this bill before me, we will have made the first fundamental change in our coinage in 173 years. The Coinage Act of 1965 supersedes the act of 1792. And that act had the title: An Act Establishing a Mint and Regulating the Coinage of the United States.

Since that time our coinage of dimes, and quarters, and half dollars, and dollars have contained 90 percent silver. Today, except for the silver dollar, we are establishing a new coinage to take its place beside the old….

The new dimes and the new quarters will contain no silver. They will be composites, with faces of the same alloy used in our 5-cent piece that is bonded to a core of pure copper. They will show a copper edge…..

Here the President acknowledges that silver is a scarce material and that its demand is increasing. He points out that, in 1965, silver consumption was already silver production.

Now, all of you know these changes are necessary for a very simple reason–silver is a scarce material. Our uses of silver are growing as our population and our economy grows. The hard fact is that silver consumption is now more than double new silver production each year. So, in the face of this worldwide shortage of silver, and our rapidly growing need for coins, the only really prudent course was to reduce our dependence upon silver for making our coins.

Despite this, he maintains that demand won’t increase for the coins once they are taken out of circulation:

Some have asked whether our silver coins will disappear. The answer is very definitely-no.

Our present silver coins won’t disappear and they won’t even become rarities. We estimate that there are now 12 billion–I repeat, more than 12 billion silver dimes and quarters and half dollars that are now outstanding. We will make another billion before we halt production. And they will be used side-by-side with our new coins.

Since the life of a silver coin is about 25 years, we expect our traditional silver coins to be with us in large numbers for a long, long time.

He affirms the US government has lots of silver on hand, and that they will manage the price of silver over time if anyone has the idea to hoard silver.

If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content.

Now, I will sign this bill to make the first change in our coinage system since the 18th century. And to those Members of Congress, who are here on this very historic occasion, I want to assure you that in making this change from the 18th century we have no idea of returning to it.

We are going to keep our eyes on the stars and our feet on the ground.

As GoldSilverBitcoin has pointed out before, a lot of press before the debasement didn’t speak too highly of silver. In the summer of 1955, Business Week claimed that “No one seems to want the metal.” 50 years after The Coinage Act of 1965, silver demand is at record highs, and, as we write, dealers are having problems getting the metal.

As the US “celebrates” 50 years with debased coins, someone is buying up lots of physical silver for September 2015, and, as Mark Dice showed, Americans have mostly forgotten what silver is anyway.

 

David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.

As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this… 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time! Where will you be when this happens?

 

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Silver Squelchers Nineteen & Their Interesting Associates

Silver Squelchers Nineteen & Their Interesting Associates

Ivan Obolensky, Pilgrims Society, is identified as an investment banker. However, we are more appropriately placing him in the royalty section which will be number 28 or 29 (or other later number due to ongoing series revision), if that group is in two parts due to too much length as one presentation. Obolensky is a relation of the super rich Astors. In the next installment, Megabankers in the Society (#21 because #20 will be Part II of Investment Bankers), we’ll include a profile on globe-straddling titan Sir Peter Sutherland who, though he could fit into this investment bankers presentation due to his strong linkage to Goldman Sachs, has been a director of several megabanks.

Read rest of article here.

 

David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.

As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this… 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time! Where will you be when this happens?

 

Join The Morgan Report Free for 30 Days *
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Silver Guru David Morgan on Silver Manipulation and Financial End Games

Welcome to a special Thursday release of this week’s Market Wrap Podcast.

Below is the interview with David Morgan of The Morgan Report and author of The Silver Manifesto. David joined us in studio to share with you some key developments in the mining industry, the potential for the producers to band together to end all this massive short selling in the futures market, and what he ultimately sees as the end game to the looming financial crisis.

Mike Gleason: I’m happy to welcome back our friend, David Morgan, of The Morgan Report and author of the fabulous new book The Silver Manifesto. We don’t get the opportunity to do face to face interviews all that often but David is here in person in our Idaho headquarters facilities and we’re doing this from our little recording studio. First off, David, welcome and thanks for joining us as always and thanks for paying us a visit.

David Morgan: Mike, great to be with you and thank you for the tour. It’s quite a facility, brand new or I guess less than a year old. I’ve been through more than one of these. I have to say you’ve thought through everything on the security bases as well as any I’ve ever seen.

Mike Gleason: Well, thank you very much for the feedback there. We certainly appreciate that. It’s great having you here. Before we get into the book which I definitely want to cover with you today – which is a fantastic read by the way – I wanted to have a little bit of your background as a primer because obviously your experiences had a lot to do with creation of this book. How did David Morgan come to be so fascinated with silverware and how did it all start for you?

David Morgan: Well, on my first book, Get the Skinny on Silver Investing, I wrote that when I was 11 years old that the coin has changed from 90% silver coins to what we call the Johnson slugs. That caught my attention but certainly at that point in my life I had no idea what I’d be doing at this point in my life. It’s something I sort of didn’t really forget about but didn’t pay much attention to. After all, I was 11 years old. But I was fascinated by money and markets even as a small youngster. When I was 16, I asked my dad if I could I start trading stocks and I actually was allowed to do so. There’s a form I don’t even know if it exists anymore, it’s called the Uniform Gift to Minors Act, if the parent signed it, then you’re allowed to trade stocks under the age of 18.

I started doing that. I, on my own, started looking into monetary history and what money was and all that stuff. I discovered very early on about the goldsmiths and how they loaned out… or how they put out certificates that didn’t have one-to-one correspondence to the amount of gold that they held because they discovered that maybe one out of 10 people came into actually claim the certificate for gold. The whole fractional reserve banking and how it was done. I became very fascinated about banking and fractional reserve banking and how the system really worked and I knew most of the stuff by the time I was 17 years old.

When I had some money on my first job, real job, I mean, I worked summer jobs. But when I got my first real job and started saving money in a serious way, I started looking to precious metals and primarily gold because it seem from what I’ve read to that point in time that gold was the best place to be. As I saw the first market in gold from the early 70’s to the January 21st 1980, I was pretty much gold focused. Then after the fall of that time frame and silver pulled back substantially and so did gold, I asked the big question, why do the Hunt brothers buy silver? Why didn’t they buy gold? What were they so interested in about silver? Then knowing later, not at that time that Bunker Hunt felt the correct ratio between silver and gold was 5 to 1.

During the peak of the silver market, it actually hit the 16 to 1 monetary ratio very briefly, that one day when silver peaked. I started looking at silver. The more I read, the more I studied, the more I developed a study of silver, the more it became apparent to me that although more volatile, it held far more potential than gold. When I came into the business I’m in now and got in the internet and stopped just consulting and decided to start writing a newsletter, it definitely was silver focused for a lot of reasons but primarily just because the background that I had through experience in the gold market and subsequent when I’d learned and studied about the silver market post 1980, not that I didn’t have any silver exposure on the first run up, I did, but I was again was primarily focused on the gold market until after the fact.

Mike Gleason: In the months leading up to the release of The Silver Manifesto, I recall you saying that this is the book you’ve been wanting to write for several years, perhaps even since you wrote your bestselling Get the Skinny on Silver Investing so it truly was years in the making. It’s incredibly comprehensive. You and coauthor Chris Marchese go through all aspects of silver from its history as a monetary metal, the industrial component and the drivers there and now the huge amount of investment demand that is developed over the recent years, it truly is the bible on all things silver. So I imagine that even you, the silver guru as many people refer to you as probably learned something about the metal that you didn’t know. Talk about the book and give the audience who hasn’t yet had a chance to read it, an idea of what it’s all about.
David Morgan: Well certainly I did. I learned a little bit more about the potential for silver in the electronics realm, this LED lightning, this light-emitting diode. Chris did a lot of research on that. So there were several areas in that aspect of the book. One of the things I learned was how difficult it is to write about the bullion banking, fractional reserve banking and basic economics in a manner that hopefully as lively but more difficult is to write it in a manner that people want to read it and understand it because without an understanding of basic economics, and most people as soon as you say the word, it’s like taking a couple of sleeping pills. They’re ready just to nod off. I get that. But it’s critical to understand it to really have a solid basis or foundation to understand why precious metals are so critical especially during this time that we’re currently living

That is the biggest challenge. I think we rewrote those chapters like four, five times, tweaking them here, tweaking them there, trying to make them better, trying to make them more understanding, not over explain anything and not under-explaining anything. The nine months, I think, probably those three chapters were the ones that we just continually pounded again and again and again. Of course, you look at the Amazon feedback, most of it is very positive. There’s a few people that it’s hard to read or whatever and I get that. It’s not a book for a super intellect by any stretch of the imagination. We try to make it readable for everybody but there’s some people that would read it that would probably find it difficult. It is more of a textbook type of a book than perhaps a novel of some type but it’s not a novel. It’s about the silver market, it’s about money, it’s about monetary history, it’s about the economy.

It’s about why we’re where we are and what we can do about. It’s about choosing a mining company, how to analyze a mining company. It’s about how to set up a profile and a portfolio where you manage risks to reward, why top tier mining companies are more important in some ways than junior mining companies, why junior mining companies offer more exposure to risk than others. On and on it goes. Basically, with Chris’ help, it’s what I’ve accumulated in 40 years of experience that I put in a book. There’s a lot of heart and soul in it and certainly I wanted to leave, and I don’t like to use the word legacy, I’m just another human being, one of 7 billion on the planet, but I certainly devoted my life to understanding money, metals and mining and this book gave me the opportunity to present, I’d say, the cream of that into a format that hopefully will have fairly decent shelf life.

Mike Gleason: I think you’ve definitely struck a good balance there between the readability and the educational aspect of it. It is a fantastic piece of work. You guys did a very good job with that.

You touched on the miners there. As you more than anyone know the mining industry has had a rough go of it over the last few years given the extended period of low prices. But the mining stock seemed to have finally based out and maybe have rebounded from their low. So are you seeing a leading indicator of a new bold cycle in the physical metal perhaps? What about mining stocks? Is it safe to get back in?

David Morgan: I think it is safe. We’ve been a little more early there because this bottoming process is taking so long. A lot of the stuff that we had recommended is value oriented and it’s still value and now it’s better value because it’s lower in price. But your direct question, there’s a direct answer. On the premium service, all the videos that we do, we do a mining trip when we shoot a video of it or David Smith or Chris, we try to do a film and we post that to our premium members. Then I also do look over my shoulder trades where I use Camtasia software and “say look at this chart” or whatever. I can show anything with that from the desktop. I recently showed a chart of the HUI and how their bottoms are higher, the three bottoms that we’ve seen, each one has been subsequently higher than the last which is a small very visible uptrend which is unusual because gold and silver certainly have sold off this recently. It’s in this, what I call indecision pattern.

It’s in our channel formation. If it breaks out to the upside, we might be on our way although it probably take a couple more tries. If it breaks it downside, usually it only takes one trip to the downside unfortunately. Markets go down easier than they go up. If we were to break the channel, gold and or silver, you’d probably see a new low. It hasn’t happened yet. I don’t think it will. But the stocks are a great leading indicator in a bull market and right now the HUI is signaling that, it’s saying that the bottom is in and that we’re going higher. It doesn’t say we’re going higher tomorrow. It doesn’t say it’s going to be zooming up by the end of the year but it does indicate that the bottom is in and better times are ahead of us.

That’s how you read it. I don’t argue with the markets. That’s what it says right now. Could this be a false indicator? Yes. Do these work 100% of the time? No. But it’s a very reliable one. That’s what I’m going on to over several months and I think that, again, the worst is behind us. I certainly hope so at this point.

Mike Gleason: Prices on the physical seem to be at artificially low prices, well below the all in cost of production which you often write about. Around the last time you were on CEO of a primary silver miner called First Majestic, a very well-known one, had just urged other mining companies to follow his lead and hold back some of their production from the market, choosing instead to sell it later when prices were not depressed or suppressed, I guess we could say. Has the idea of putting a squeeze on all those leverage short sellers gotten any traction from other companies or it is mainly just First Majestic at this point?

David Morgan: Well at this point, I would say it’s probably just First Majestic. But if you go back into history, Gold Corp had this situation, and of course it’s a gold company but they were holding back production and banking it in a vault. A shareholder in the early days, Gold Corp owned gold bullion and shares in the company itself. I was urging other silver mining companies to adopt a similar manner of doing business to actually. Two actually adopted it in a rather minor way. One is Silver Standard. They did that for a little while and Endeavor Silver also did it for a short time frame. But Keith (Neumeyer – CEO of First Majestic) is really the one in present day that’s done it, not only recently with what you outlined but also Ted Butler came out recently and urged people to write a letter, urged mining companies to write a letter to the CFTC and explain that these markets, the way that they are traded, are well outside of the realm of what the intent of the law is.

Keith did a great job. First Majestic, this is NYSC company, symbol AG, I own a stock by the way, I should get that in there. But it’s a step forward. Whether others would follow or not, I do not know. But I admire Keith. He’s always been, let’s say, outside of the box of most of the CEOs I’ve met in the space. That goes from top tier which his company definitely is to even the mid-tiers and the juniors, a lot of them just don’t really want to get involved. I get that. It’s easier to do nothing than to do something and there’s various reasons. I’m not going to tell anybody what they should do or shouldn’t do, but I really admire the fact that he stepped to the plate and did it. It’s a lead move. We’ll have to wait and see if it has any bearing as far as what the response will be from the authorities but I certainly love to see if he gets a response and what it is.

Mike Gleason: You certainly have to commend him for sticking his neck out in some way. I definitely like to see him recruit others in the mining space to do the same just so we can hopefully get away from some of the shenanigans that take place in these futures markets that are really hurting some real companies out there. You see it first hand, obviously we’ve got … mining companies have had a very difficult time or some of them anyway. Do you expect to see any more consolidation in that industry? What are you seeing there and what’s the mood like?

David Morgan: Well, the mood is pretty down. I mean, a lot of these miners have been suffering. Some have gone out of business. Some are moving together into one office space, two or three companies in Vancouver for the smaller companies. Thompson Creek is basically on care and maintenance although they don’t talk about it in those terms. I think they laid off like one third or two thirds, I forget which, of the workforce. You’re seeing a lot of consolidation, cutbacks, slimming in products. Then a lot of companies have high graded in order to stay in business. That’s typical in these downturns that companies, if they can, not all of them can, will go into the mine and they know where the grades vary and they’ll get the highest grade because it’s the richest ore and therefore your loss is less or maybe you’re still managing to eek out a small profit. But that weakens the overall ability of the company when things come back because your overall grade strength has been lessened because you high-graded.

There’s a lot of things in the industry that have been rather bleak for quite some time. I think we will see further weakness but not much longer. Again, I’m trying to be as objective as I can meaning that I think the bottom is in, I think the worst is probably behind us. I don’t think we have much further to go. So I think anyone’s that held on this long probably make it over the hump and will start seeing better times for the miners. Having said that, I could be wrong. It’s possible that with what’s going on in the greater picture, I’m sure you asked me during the interview, the bond markets and the Greek exit situation and all that is happening that we could see some weakness in the main commodities and also strength in the precious metals.
For example, you might see a weakness in some of the base metals, maybe moly(bdenum), maybe copper that’s shown a little bit of strength here, fall back off. Then some of the other softs in the commodities come off but food going up and moving up this problem with this bird flu again. There’s been a lot of depopulation, the chicken supply and the egg supply, that will cause prices to rise in eggs and chicken. So you’re going to see these things where, I don’t think I coined the term, but I certainly emphasized it that the dynamic change is primarily going from things that you need, what cause more and things that are debt based, will cost less or at least be able to be obtained. You can look at the housing market. It’s still bubble-ish in some sectors. Car loans are easy to get. Both of those are debt based purchases but food is not a debt based purchase in most cases. It’s buy and eat it. Food prices certainly are not going down. That’s a need.

Again, I’ll say it one more time, things that we need are probably going to cost more overall than things that we don’t necessarily need but we continue to purchase, especially our leverage will continue probably to at least vary and oscillate. The banks will give these loans or whatever. They’re getting lighter or easier to make purchases using credit that it has been for some time.

Mike Gleason: Touching on the bonds, I do want to ask you about that. Obviously all markets are tied together in some way or another and perhaps one of the linchpins is the bond markets and a lot of trading activities is dictated off of what happens there. Now, you had some interesting things to say about that when we were talking earlier at lunch. What is the bond market telling you right now? What are you seeing there?

David Morgan: Well, interest rates are reciprocal of the bonds’ price. As interest rates go higher, bond prices go down. We have seen the bond market selloff meaning that the interest rates are forced higher. In fact, the German bond is at 0.9% now. It hasn’t sold off as hard as it has recently until October of 1998 when the hedge fund long term capital management imploded. Early on in my speaking career, I talked about the trillion dollar bet which is a movie all about the long term capital management fiasco. So that’s a big indicator.

The other one of course is Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank) talking about spooking the markets because he talked about preparing for higher volatility. That’s due to the Greek situation. The inflation in Europe, is that part of it? Yeah, it could be. But certainly this debt crisis with Greece, is really boiling over. I mean, everyone knows that they’re missing this payment with the IMF and that’s something that hasn’t happened ever as far as I know. All these things, Mike, are coming to the fore. The debt markets are the problem. They continue to grow and yet at this point in time, they are probably the most unsafe place you could be for your money.

I want to digress for a moment because I’ve been through so far this bull market, that I think will continue to be a bull market eventually. But I went through the full cycle in the 1970’s to 1980. And the best move you’ve possibly could have made and I didn’t do it, but at hindsight’s 20/20, is that you sold your gold in January of 1980 and you bought the long bond. I think it was like 20% or so at the time and you held that for 30 years. You could not have done anything smarter than that. But you know what, no tree goes off the sky, kicking the can down the road, eventually you’ll run out of road and this is the time where you got to rethink that fabulous move that some people made that’s wearing out.

Bonds were supposed to be the safest investment you can make. But all these sovereign debts, which means nation states cannot pay back their bond debt. Because of that fact, you have to really rethink if bond investment is safe or not safe. Most of the bond market revolves around big money. It’s bank to bank, nation state to nation state. I mean, Germany doesn’t want to Greek default because they’ve loaned them all this money. That’s a nation state. What happens in the next round in my very studied view will be it won’t be corporate debt that fails, it won’t be real estate debt that fails, although both of those could be repercussions, it will be governments that fail.

And how does a government fail? A government fails when its sovereign debt cannot be paid. This is what is taking place with Greece as we speak. What are the ramifications? Can a nation state with, what 12 million people, I think that’s correct, fail? But that systemic risk that triggers what happens in Germany, which triggers what happens in the rest of the Euro market, does that trigger what happens in London and does that trigger what happens in New York? You bet it does. They’re all interconnected. Because they’re all interconnected, a small failure like 12 million people that can’t pay back the debt that they owe could have repercussions far greater than just that one country. So that’s what we’re facing. That means that we’re in a situation that’s far more precarious than we were in 2008.

Mike Gleason: One of the other things we were talking about offline was just the fact that we do have kind of two camps right now, the inflation camp and the deflation camp. I know you travel on all these conferences and you run into a lot of smart people who have a lot of really informed decisions and opinions on what’s going to happen there. Where do you fall on that? What do you think the way out of this is? Are we going to have a deflating default or are we going to have an inflationary event here that takes place? Where do you come in on that?

David Morgan: Well, there’s really two main ways to have a depression. There is a debt liquidating depression, which is what we saw on the 1930’s. And there is a hyper inflationary depression. Before I give you my final answer, I’ll discuss the likeliness of both of them. In both those cases, you have high unemployment. You have high uncertainty about the economy. You have a high mistrust of government or government officials or authority in general. You have the general malaise of the populous. You start to see areas of need or want that are not fulfilled very easily. For example, you’ll find shortages in certain supply lines, supply chains. So those things all happen it’s a hyper inflationary depression or a debt liquidating depression. The main difference is that in a debt liquidating depression, there’s a huge contraction in money the supply and that money is more valuable than ever.

In a hyper inflationary depression, the situation is that the government that holds the debt is able to try to print its way out of it. Meaning that the money becomes worth less, worth less and then more or less worthless, where the trust of the people is actually null and void. People don’t trust the currency anymore. It fails. The side I lean toward is that that’s the way we’re going to go, but I rule out hyperinflation. You do not need a hyperinflation of a currency crisis. That’s not a requirement. I do not believe in a hyperinflation because of the bond market. As interest rates are forced higher, the bond prices go down which deflationary.

However, it’s a trust issue. People will move to what they trust the most which the first thing that they trust the most is physical greenbacks or the checking account or the money market account. So they’ll move out of all of their asset classes that will be stocks, that will be bonds, that will be master limited partnerships, it will be anything that you could sell to somebody through a broker that you could sell and turn to cash. That will be the first run. The run will be the cash. This comes to the extra pyramid which you can look up on the internet, I’ve discussed it many times. That will be perceived safety. However, that isn’t the safest place you’ll go. So as more there are more debt defaults or more happen, there’s a likelihood that there’ll be a certain amount of that cash that runs to gold. Gold and silver are at the tip of the extra pyramid meaning, it’s liquidity of all time and there’s no counter party risk whatsoever.

You could liquidate a million dollar portfolio and stick it in the bank and feel very safe and then have what happened in Argentina happen to you. Meaning that you’ve got the million dollars in the bank and the bank won’t touch it. They’re not even going to do a bail in. No bail in. Well David, I thought you said there could be bail ins? It could but in this case there isn’t. However, the bank sends you a little notice that says you’re only allowed to withdraw $200 a week from your account. Your million dollars is safe and sound with us no problem, however the currency control mechanism set by the federal government now says that you’re allowed $200 a week. How would that sit with you? Not very well. At least I know it wouldn’t with me. This is exactly what took place. The idea’s exactly right. The amount isn’t correct but the idea is exactly what happened in Argentina.

These are things people should think through. You want to be outside of that before it happens. Will it happen? I don’t know. Could it happen? Absolutely. Could a bail in and a restriction on currency flows happen? Yes, both could happen. So the only way outside of that system is the money of all time. Coming back on point, and this is what I want to emphasize, we have never had a debt liquidating depression where the currency superseded and went on when it was not a gold backed system. Let me restate that more succinctly. Every time you had a non-backed currency and a depression, it has been of the inflationary variety. There is not one instance in history where it’s gone the other way. So to say that it will go the other way, you’re saying that 4,000 or 5,000 years of recorded history that for once that paper money will trump gold. I don’t think that will be the case.

It could be. I don’t rule it out. I don’t want to be consistent. As I’ve said, I’ve never ruled out completely that a debt liquidating depression could take place and that currency itself actually goes up in value and does better than gold. I really don’t believe that. I think you could have something of both happening at the same time and I’ll restate I just stated but didn’t probably emphasize enough, you could see a run in the cash and cash looks better than gold for a while but then the ultimate money and the smartest money moves into gold or at least hedges some of that cash into gold and gold market is so small that as that cash went from cash into the precious metals, you would see the metals come up and the dollar go down relative to each other. That’s what I really expect, a run to the dollar and then a run of the gold. That’s kind of what we’ve been witnessing anyway.

Again, the bond market can’t hold forever. Interest rates will be forced up by the market. The Fed had a lot of control but not ultimate control, the market does. And eventually we’re already seeing the crack start to take place in the bond markets, in the Euro and the Spanish bond market, the German bond market, the US bond market and the trust level starting to lessen. It’s just like going into a worthless paper currency. It doesn’t happen overnight. The 1913 dollar is now worth about 4 cents. That took over 100 years but at some point it becomes worthless. That’s where we’re heading toward. Does that mean absolute zero? No. We’ll get a resent before we hit absolute zero.

Mike Gleason: Well it’s certainly a crazy world financially. I’m glad that we have studied in smart people like yourself to help explain it all. We appreciate you coming on. It’s great insights as always. It was great to see you and thanks for paying us a visit in person this time.

David Morgan: Mike, my pleasure. Thank you.

Mike Gleason: Well, that will do it for this week. Thanks again to David Morgan. Again, the book is The Silver Manifesto. I strongly urge everyone to pick up a copy of it. If you’ve ever bought silver or thought about investing into bullion, mining stocks, ETFs, anything, whatsoever, this authoritative book on silver is truly second to none when it comes to the silver market. Pick up your own copy today, you definitely won’t be disappointed.

And check back here next Friday for our next weekly Market Wrap podcast. Until then, this has been Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a great weekend, everybody.

 

David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.

As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this… 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time! Where will you be when this happens?

 

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The Silver Users Association Is Shrinking!

Is the deadened aura of hopelessness in the silver market about to be removed?
Presented July 2015 by Charles Savoie

I noticed this on July 4, 2015! The Silver Users Association website has been revamped and several major changes are noted. The archived Washington Reports appear to have been deleted (Ted Butler and I were quoted) but the main eyebrow-raiser is I do not find either Dow Chemical or Du Pont listed, and they’ve been listed as far back as I remember in 2000 when I started researching silver. These have long been the twin pillars of the SUA especially since Kodak ran into troubles. D & D use silver in upwards of 300 chemical catalytic processes. Their businesses would be paralyzed without silver! The SUA has had significant dependency over the years on primary silver miners to contribute a measurable percentage of annual world silver mine supply. But as long as most silver supply came from polymetallic mining, divestitures from government stockpiles (“leasing”) and disinvestment, the users have had no compunction about severely price abusing the primary silver miners. It reminds me of the old Romans sending runners up into the Apennine Mountains to gather snow for ruling class festivals, and being told that if they returned late, or with an amount of snow deemed insufficient, their families would be killed. In August 2000, Sunshine Mining & Refining filed for bankruptcy, the Silver Users association and its megabanker sponsors having wrecked it with appalling low prices, and cast the dry husk away like an assassin bug or robber fly after sucking a victim dry! The primary silver miner as of this time and for many years, is comparable to an old hound dog, his vitality drained away by a pack of ticks, which in this case are the member companies of the Silver Users Association. Between the gold and silver mining companies, probably more than $250 billion in market capitalization (share prices) is currently nonexistent due to the naked shorting of COMEX “silver” and gold shorting—mainly to make the Federal Reserve dollar look strong.

I am wanting to interpret the absence of our two biggest chemical industry giants from the SUA roster as a sign that a blow-up is on the near horizon. Besides reviewing their alphabetized roster, I used their search function and again found no mention of Dow or Du Pont. Does their absence signify they found a better catalytic substance than silver? We all know better than that. Does their departure suggest a wish to distance themselves from an approaching scandal? Between Dow & Du Pont they have 117,000 employees. If large layoffs transpire due to a protracted silver shortage, will “hoarders” and “speculators” be blamed? Consider the advertising patronage many media sources have received from these giants for decades! The media is always on the side of infamy!

Read the rest of this article here…

 

David Morgan is a precious metals aficionado armed with degrees in finance and economics as well as engineering, he created the Silver-Investor.com website and originated The Morgan Report, a monthly that covers economic news, overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems, and the key reasons for investing in precious metals.

As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report and numerous other publications. If there is only one thing to teach you about this silver bull market it is this… 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time! Where will you be when this happens?

 

Join The Morgan Report Free for 30 Days *
* 30 Day Trial applies to new user sign ups only!
Offer does not apply to Premium Memberships.
  

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